Western Experts: “EUV Scanners Will Not Appear in China Until 2040”

Western experts and key players in the global semiconductor industry continue to evaluate the pace of import substitution in China. 

According to forecasts by Germany's Zeiss Group (the primary supplier of optical components for Dutch giant ASML), it will take Chinese developers at least 15 years to build their own extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment.

Why the long wait?

EUV scanners are essential for manufacturing advanced chips at 7 nm nodes and below. Due to strict export controls imposed by the US and the Netherlands, completed units of this class are not delivered to China. Consequently, Chinese manufacturers are forced to develop alternatives from scratch.

Frank Rohmund, Head of Semiconductor Technologies at Zeiss Group, confirmed in an interview with Bloomberg that a 15-year timeline seems realistic, though he noted the difficulty of precisely assessing current progress in China.

Sole market player and a boost for Chinese innovation

Today, ASML remains the world's sole manufacturer of EUV lithography systems, with Zeiss Group supplying the optics used to produce 80% of all chips globally. 

Rohmund warned that further tightening of export rules would not only hurt European revenues but also accelerate domestic development in the Chinese semiconductor sector. The Zeiss representative emphasized, however, that Chinese engineers have been working on proprietary equipment for decades, yet the West's technological lead remains immense.