High risks of banning Nvidia H800 shipments to China by recent U.S. export rules

According to Reuters, this week the US authorities are planning to amend export control rules regarding the supply of computing accelerators to China. The new version of the rules is expected to expand the list of computing accelerators under US sanctions which include the NVIDIA H800 as one of the most popular chip models.

Last year, U.S. authorities set performance criteria for data transfer speeds. Due to changes in export control regulations, NVIDIA adjusted its products and started shipping the A800 instead of the A100. And a little later, the H800 model was added, which was based on the H100. According to the information currently available, there will be a ban on H800-level accelerators in the new regulations.

Exporters will be forced to report the performance level of computing accelerators that are shipped to China, even if they are not banned. These measures will significantly reduce the shipment of powerful devices and minimize the possibility of customizing accelerators that are already in China. Anything suspicious could be stopped by U.S. officials. There is also a possibility that a new "specific performance" criterion will be introduced.

The new version of export control regulations does not yet plan to restrict Chinese companies from accessing U.S. providers of cloud computing resources. However, regulators intend to consider this issue and its potential impact on national security. In addition, it is expected to make it more difficult for Chinese companies to purchase necessary equipment through their foreign affiliates.

Note that export and other restrictions put serious pressure on China's semiconductor industry. For example, China previously lost access to advanced ASML equipment from the Netherlands, which produces lithography machines.

China is also experiencing problems with the production of high-tech RAM and other high-end components. Due to restrictions on the supply of equipment that can print more than 128 layers, Chinese solid-state memory manufacturer YMTC is urgently looking for an alternative to American technology. At the same time, this spring the companies received $7 billion from the Chinese government to develop production and now the company's management is searching for alternatives in developing programs as well as to attract highly skilled employees.